The FiveThirtyEight forecast model still has Harris ... I wrote about the US election for The Poll Bludger last Thursday, and ...

Use precise geolocation data and actively scan device characteristics for identification. This is done to store and access ...

China's exports likely grew at the slowest pace in four months in August, as cooling global demand and mounting trade ...

04 September - National weather forecast presented by Annie Shuttleworth. Nobody is gonna know! Looked lookie sellers in La ...

Yet early tightening in the polls to ... set for a summer election. The final lock-in came after the local elections, when Houchen’s victory offered a glimmer of hope and forecasts pointed ...

News updates from August 21: Fed officials signal readiness for September rate cut; Five bodies found on Mike Lynch’s superyacht on facebook (opens in a new window) News updates from August 21 ...

The former president fell below a 40 percent chance of winning the election in the latest update to FiveThirtyEight's ...

Number of electoral votes and the probability of a Democratic or Republican win in each state. Outlined states are most likely to give the winner their 270th Electoral College vote. Use the table ...

Even as Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy teetered and polls ... presidential elections. In our paper, we show that even under best-case scenarios, determining whether one forecast is better ...

Even as Joe Biden’s presidential candidacy teetered and polls showed him clearly losing ... far more punditry than forecasters admit. Election forecasts have a long history in political science ...

On any given day we run the model, it considers two ways the polls could be wrong in predicting the election outcome. The first is temporal drift in public opinion. Since we're making forecasts ...

Just as I find polling to be often misunderstood, election forecasting is even more complicated, making it even more likely that the results of a forecast will be badly misinterpreted. There are ...